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According to the latest report of TrendForce, a market survey agency, due to the volatility of the epidemic and the slow resumption of work in the manufacturing industry, it is difficult for ODM plants to fill the production gap caused by the epidemic in the second quarter.

At present, high inflation has led to high prices, which does not help to support demand in the second half of the peak season. Consumer products such as mobile phones, laptops, tablets, televisions and other consumer products have a significant impact, resulting in falling demand for consumer regulation MLCC and rising market inventories. The agency believes that the average inventory level of all sizes has reached more than 90 days, and the average price of consumer regulation MLCC is expected to fall by another 30.6% in the second half of the year.

However, automotive, HPC high-speed computing (including servers), Netcom equipment, industrial automation, energy storage system equipment and other demand is still robust, coupled with the slow demand for consumer products in the second half of the year, driving semiconductor IDM manufacturers to gradually transfer production capacity, is expected to alleviate the shortage of IC, support customers for automotive, industrial control, high-end MLCC to pull goods kinetic energy.

Jibang Consulting estimates that in the second half of the year, supported by demand for cars, servers and Netcom products, the overall MLCC shipment is expected to reach about 2.58 trillion, an increase of 2 per cent over the same period last year.

The volume of consumer prices fell, and the MLCC quotations of car rules and industrial regulations remained stable.

The survey pointed out that from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the price of the consumer regulation MLCC fell by an average of 510% for the whole year. In the second quarter of this year, in order to stimulate customers to increase their willingness to pull goods, the price of the consumer regulation MLCC was further reduced by 30.5%, while the price of some low-end consumer regulations MLCC even touched the cost of materials.
From the process of MLCC supply and demand cycle in the past, the turning point of supply and demand often occurs after continuous price and volume rises or falls. For example, from the second half of 2020 to 2021, it has experienced a period of rising price and volume, while up to now it has shown a simultaneous decline in volume and price for two consecutive quarters.

In the second half of 2022, the pricing pressure of the consumption regulation MLCC continues to decline, and it is expected to decline by an average of 30.6%.
The price of industrial regulation profit-based MLCC, on the other hand, is expected to increase the kinetic energy of pulling goods under the relief of the shortage of client chips, with a drop of 1 / 2%, or even flat, while the price of car regulation MLCC, which belongs to the annual quotation, is to keep the price stable.
Worried about the ups and downs of the consumer product market, various manufacturers expand their layout.
MuRata and TDK have a market share of nearly 80% of the automotive MLCC market. In addition to continuously expanding automotive production capacity, they are also actively taking root in MLCC parts application services, and further upgrade to module application services through collaborative customer design to enhance customer adhesion.

At present, the two suppliers have begun to provide image sensor module (Image sensor module), IPA module (Intelligent parking assist) and other services in vehicle power system (Powertrain) and ADAS advanced driving assistance system.

Samsung has also passed the verification of the car factory one after another this year, and will gradually increase the vehicle production capacity of the Tianjin factory from the third quarter.

Guoju is located in the Dafa factory area of Kaohsiung, and is expected to start production line verification in the fourth quarter, mainly expanding industrial high-voltage products and automotive 0805, 1210 and other large-size products. It is expected to mass production at the end of the first quarter in 2023, with an initial monthly production capacity of about 80 ~ 10 billion pieces. In addition, it also continues to expand the application of high-end products such as military industry, Netcom, automotive, medical and other products through comprehensive services of MLCC, resistor, inductance, antenna modules and other products.


TrendForce believes that although Chinese mainland's manufacturing industry in eastern China is resuming operation one after another, freight transport at Shanghai's external sea and air ports is fully recovering, accelerating the shipment of finished products from ODM plants. Under the gradual return to normal logistics, the problem of long and short materials is expected to be greatly improved, thus pushing up the kinetic energy of pulling goods in the third quarter.

However, global geopolitical conflicts, epidemics, high inflation or stagnant inflation will become the main variables affecting the MLCC market in the second half of 2022.